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Residents of the Big Apple will learn who will be their new city leader this election day, in a race that will determine who governs and defends the nation's largest city at a time when Donald Trump has threatened to send armed forces to the city.

Against that backdrop, New York has experienced a mayoral election that has pitted two distinctly opposing Democrats against one another. The election has turned into an increasingly bitter face-off, laced with accusations of racism and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the ideological divide between the two main candidates that could have significant consequences for how the party fares in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

On the left side is the democratic socialist, the 34-year-old progressive candidate whose rapid ascent and grassroots campaign has attracted international attention. On the establishment side is Andrew Cuomo, the former New York governor now running as an independent – and enjoying the support of wealthy contributors and big business.

With days to go, it is Mamdani, the former longshot who defeated Cuomo in the Democratic primary who is solidly positioned as the frontrunner. Mamdani, who has campaigned on a platform of affordability and pledged to freeze rent for about 2 million New Yorkers, has led Cuomo by double-digits across all surveys conducted in October, and it is very much the progressive's race to lose.

The Controversial Campaign

Yet, the former governor, who stepped down as the state's leader in recent years amid allegations of sexual harassment, has stated clearly he will battle to the finish, and not necessarily in an fair fashion. He has trashed Mamdani's goals as unachievable, and in recent days laughed as a radio host made Islamophobic remarks about Mamdani, who is Muslim. Two weeks ago, Cuomo was widely condemned as racist after posting an AI-generated ad that featured a slew of racial caricatures and showed his opponent releasing a convicts.

This represents a particularly ugly conclusion to an election that could be key to the direction that the Democratic party, floundering in its reaction to Trump's authoritarian grabs, adopts in the coming years.

Broader Consequences

Should the progressive wins convincingly, the party establishment who have refused to endorse his campaign will be forced to reckon with a platform that has resonated with Americans' frustration at inequality, soaring price rises and the political elite. It would be hard for the Senate leader and Hakeem Jeffries not to embrace at least some of Mamdani's progressive proposals about economic justice, given the newcomer has created an enthusiasm within the party perhaps not seen since Bernie Sanders campaigned for the White House in 2016.

However, if the former governor, who had been predicted to sail to victory in the Democratic primary, achieve a surprising riches-to-rags-to-riches win, it could cement national Democrats' current model of cautious, uninspiring opposition – a tactic that has angered grassroots members. A New York defeat of the progressive's progressive, positive message could persuade Schumer and Jeffries that the best plan is to stick to the center – even as polls show the present version of the party is widely disliked across the country.

Voter Enthusiasm

Residents of New York seem to prefer the Mamdani vision. Surveys show that his backers are far more enthusiastic about their choice than his opponent's supporters, something that has been evident during the race. Mamdani's snappy videos on digital platforms, his optimistic vision for the city and his readiness to actually get out and connect with voters in the city has drawn an army of more than 50,000 volunteers, many of them young or new participants.

Personal Attacks

However, Cuomo, in his late sixties, continues to fight. And with the stakes against him, the ex-leader has resorted to ugly messaging in recent weeks.

Following extensive throwing basically everything at his opponent to see what might resonate, Cuomo has concentrated on targeting Mamdani personally. He has labelled his rival, who was of Ugandan origin to South Asian heritage, an “extremist”, and popped up on Fox Business for an interview with a rightwing host, where Cuomo asserted New York “will not survive” his opponent as mayor. It reached a nadir last week, when the former governor laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said the candidate would “cheer” another terrorist attack.

Political Landscape

This strategy mirrors much of what Trump, who has sent the national guard to the capital and threatened to take similar action to NYC, has said about the progressive, and perhaps that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A set of wealthy residents, including some who contributed to Trump in the last presidential race, have invested heavily into trying to get Cuomo into office, as other influential figures have pressured Curtis Sliwa to drop out from the contest.

Political Histories

As far as the Cuomo camp, and his wealthy backers, are worried, it should never have come to this point. When Mamdani, one of 150 New York state assembly members, started his mayoral bid in last year, not many had heard of him, and in truth, few even paid attention.

Cuomo, by comparison, entered smoothly into the race in March 2025 and became the instant favorite. He was the political heavyweight who seemingly held all the advantages. The quintessential political insider, he had married a Kennedy and worked in a Democratic presidency. He became the state's leader in over a decade ago, seventeen years after his parent, Mario Cuomo, left office from the same position.

Mamdani, who was voted in to the state legislature in 2020, does not have the comparable background. But his dedication to providing free buses and affordable child services – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – offer a brighter outlook of the future than his opponent's dire warnings about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his vow to hire more police officers.

Campaign Controversies

Nevertheless, the candidate has encountered some challenges in the final phase, after footage emerged appearing to show him implying the NYPD and the IDF were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the police is on your throat, it’s been influenced by the IDF,” the candidate said in the recording, filmed at a Democratic Socialists of America convention in 2023. Mamdani, a longtime critic of the Israeli government who has said the country is committing genocide in Gaza, indicated he was questioning joint training exercises between the NYPD and IDF.

Powerful Moment

With the election nearing, Mamdani appears to have won sympathy and support, however, for his reaction to Cuomo’s escalating attacks.

The progressive addressed the independent's terrorism comments in an emotional video. In it, Mamdani remembered how, when he first ran for the legislature, a Muslim uncle suggested to him that he did not have to disclose about his Muslim faith. It was a realization, he said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been taught “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the margins of our city. That it is in those shadows alone where followers of Islam could embrace their true selves, and that if we were to emerge from those seclusion, then it is in those silence that we must set aside our faith.”

Speaking to the actions of his opponents, who has alleged Mamd