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Usually, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple formula. It commonly functions as a form of apology. Our apologies we misjudged your franchise in our pre-campaign projections.

Theoretically, it's a direct line: the skipper who engineered the most dramatic improvement receives the prize. In practice, it creates an annual discussion about expectations and whether we're genuinely honoring excellent leadership or just the most shocking surprise.

But the current race is fundamentally different. The group of contenders is exceptionally deep. It has been the year of resurgences. The league has been chaotic, with reigning division winners falling away and recent underperformers ascending in unison. During an ordinary year, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the overwhelming front-runner. Yet in this wild and thrilling season, he's facing multiple other elite candidates.

This is how the projected ballot could look.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by quarterbacks. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. If you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson didn't merely corrected Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal ecosystem, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to showcase his special talent. Since Week 9, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's sustained performance. With Johnson, Williams has become more decisive, less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the system instead of going rogue. It is an attack constructed solely in Johnson's image: a physical ground attack, a steady helping of play-action and a innovative aerial game that frees wide receiver receivers consistently. Williams has taken advantage. And when openings haven't been available, he's been able to create big plays out of nothing.

The coach came to Chicago with a clear offensive philosophy. Almost each gamble – overhauling the offensive line, featuring the tight ends, turning Williams into a rhythm passer – has succeeded. This is rare for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer still for a coach who walked into the building with the level of pressure Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the hottest name on the head coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, he has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a offensive dork but the type of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

During a normal year, he would be the runaway favorite. Yet this is not a normal year!

The area where his candidacy runs a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously fickle. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is real. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be several wins behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is in place for long-term success. However he comes up just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a similar situation to his counterpart. He's another rookie head coach who has orchestrated a dramatic resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete overall football of his career. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defense that now sits at number five in the league in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, he has excelled at the leadership stuff, which was not a given after his early public appearances and some of his offseason moves.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed themselves with the perfect coaching blend of youth and experience, Coen hired first-timers. From the head coach on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That kind of setup is exciting in theory, but frequently collapses in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a new job in real-time. But Coen has managed to bring the entire group and everything together.

Following an initial strong start, there was a chance that the season would veer off the track. A mid-year collapse caused the team wobbling again. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. He did not. Instead, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped pursuing home-run plays and started seeking consistent ones. Coen recentered the attack around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The results are obvious. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. Coen gets the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year case has a defining decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB choice.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a different quarterback and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have ended the season in the early weeks. Rather, it made it. Through the middle point of the season, the new QB was an MVP candidate. He has fallen away after that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the second half of the season, placing him only a single place ahead of other QBs.

Still