Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension triggered by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: hopeful statements are released from various governments. Considerable effort is expended on restraining specific proposals. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from across the border, a capacity afforded by up-to-date information. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been dispatched to counter approaching guided weapons streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: several firings targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably delivered by allied countries. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly transforms into grim resignation: perhaps the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and further power outages.
Persistent Threats
Not long after, a automatic firearm opened up on a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – almost certainly imported technology. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its destination.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: several casualties, destruction and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a reliance that European nations are demonstrably unable to fill in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from Washington generated strong feelings, discussion and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new proposal from American administration unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This pattern will, undoubtedly, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership operates on a principle understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government assumes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to surrender the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from believing that the situation will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding civilians and areas but preventing a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its favour.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not switch to domestic problems. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to terminate the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new proposals based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, largely rely on sustained allied backing.
