The Astonishing Scoring Streak Fuels The Villans' Unlikely Championship Bid
A mere eight weeks ago when the Villa attacker found himself on the Sunderland turf, appearing bewildered as his coach admonished him for missing a penetrating pass. During that period, with the team went six without a win, doubts remained if his performances were a sign or the reason for the team's wider issues.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
On Sunday, however, the sideline response was decidedly more positive. After Rogers curled home his second strike to reinstate Villa's lead, the boss ripped off his winter coat, opened his arms and shouted in triumph. The Birmingham club continued to ten wins in a row and having failed to win any of their first six matches, find themselves a mere three points adrift of the leaders Arsenal.
Are They Serious Title Contenders?
That’s an exceptionally difficult question to address. Past precedent, the perceived status of Villa, argues against it. Additionally, they have not been entirely convincing during this run, even as the victories have piled up.
As per Opta, in only two games have Villa posted an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a team which has put together ten consecutive victories, the Villans appear curiously susceptible – however at the moment the margins are going in their favour.
The Winning Formula
Their recent policy seems to be to exchange chances with rivals and then rely on their star man to save the day with two clinical strikes. This was the case at Leeds, it transpired in London, and it happened versus Manchester United.
The initial strike stemmed from an exquisite effort, curled just inside the upright from the edge of the area. The follow-up goal acted as a slight scruffier version of goal number one as he seized on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
Can It Last?
Logic says not. During the latest victory, Manchester United managed a greater number of attempts and more shots on target. Villa have won each of their last eight by the narrowest of margins. The defence has been breached in nearly all of those games.
Regression to the mean may well be the greatest opponent the club must confront over the coming weeks. Rogers, surely, will not continue to thrashing his shots into the net's top corner indefinitely.
A Case for Belief
Perhaps there is another reality where, rather than luck running out, performances begin to trend towards results. Important figures might still find their top level.
- The centre-forward may begin to scoring again.
- The winger could transform into the force he was during his peak.
- The defensive duo will eventually regain fitness, strengthening a sometimes shaky backline.
Maybe within that lies the potential of a genuine bid, but they surely can continue to depend solely on one man.
Enjoying the Ride
Yet, this was unforeseen. It seemed improbable Aston Villa would sit in a Champions League place in December. And certainly two months ago, nobody thought the young forward as the year closed would be leading a championship pursuit and appearing as a vital England player.
This winning streak must be cherished precisely because it appears so improbable. When the match-winner positioned himself before the home supporters after the match leading the celebrations, he seemed to be thoroughly enjoying it. Which he fully merits. These runs of form are rare in football and ought to be celebrated.