Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that divided the nation and unleashed chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the shortage of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in universities but scarcely any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author supports unification or the status quo. Both writes two essays that seek objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and social data, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates range over identity markers, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate report they support unification but reject increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will in the end be defeated but all factions has possesses valuable insights to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the debate, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
