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China has sent its coast guard through the waters of the Diaoyu islands and military drones near remote Japan's territory as Beijing ramps up tensions following the Japanese prime minister’s comments regarding the island of Taiwan.

Rights Enforcement Activities

On Sunday, the China's maritime patrol stated that its ships conducted a “rights enforcement patrol” through the waters of the Diaoyu islands, which are under the control of Tokyo but also claimed by China.

“China coast guard vessel 1307 formation performed surveillance within the maritime jurisdiction of the Senkaku islands. This was a lawful patrol operation undertaken by the China coast guard to protect its sovereign claims,” officials declared.

Bilateral Tensions

China and Japan have repeatedly faced off around the islands but the latest activity occur during an intensifying diplomatic spat after the Japanese prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, addressed lawmakers that if China attack the self-governing island of Taiwan it might provoke a armed reaction from Tokyo.

That provoked a furious reaction from China, which has indicated it demands a withdrawal from the Japanese official.

Taiwan's Position

Beijing asserts Taiwan as its own territory and intends to annex it under what it describes as “unification”. It has left open the use of force. The island's administration and citizens overwhelmingly reject the idea of Beijing's control – choosing to preserve the current situation without explicitly declaring themselves independent, but vowing to defend themselves if required.

An military assault by China would risk escalating into a regional or global conflict, possibly drawing in the US and other allies including Tokyo, which has territory just 110km (68 miles) from Taiwan.

Military Activity

In Taiwan, the defence ministry reported this weekend that it had detected 30 Chinese military aircraft, seven navy ships and one “official” ship, which was probably the coast guard, operating around the territory over the past 24 hours.

Official charts released showed up to three drones flying between Taiwan and the Japanese islands off its north-east coast, appearing to go particularly close to the nearby Japanese island. PLA movements there are not rare, but uncommon, and Beijing's defense operations in the island's ADIZ generally has been low in the past month.

Late on Saturday, the defense officials said Beijing had been conducting another “combined military exercise” to “test our defensive capabilities”. It noted Taiwan had sent its own aircraft and ships to monitor the situation. Taiwan documents these operations a couple of times a month as part of what the Taiwanese government says is an ongoing military pressure campaign.

Diplomatic Pressure

Tokyo has been facing mounting pressure from Beijing since Takaichi made her remarks, with Beijing's diplomatic representative in the Japanese city prompting a formal protest from Japan by commenting that “those who interfere will face consequences”.

China then summoned the Japanese ambassador for the first occasion since 2023, and China’s defence ministry declared that any Tokyo's involvement would be certain to collapse.

Warning for Citizens

Late last week, Beijing cautioned its citizens against travelling to Japan, leading Japan to request China to take “appropriate measures”, though it did not elaborate.

Three Chinese airlines said on Saturday that tickets to Japan could be cancelled without penalty.

In another escalation, China’s government on Sunday urged its citizens to “carefully reconsider” studying in Japan, citing what it described as an volatile safety situation.

Although not an outright prohibition, a significant decrease in the number of Chinese students could have a negative impact on Japanese universities. A record 336,708 foreign nationals were studying in Japan last year, according to official data. They included more than 123,000 Chinese students – by far the largest demographic.

Official Commentary

Earlier this weekend, a official press commentary charged the Japanese official with performing a political stunt that was “both reckless and fundamentally flawed”.

“A clash between Tokyo and Beijing would not be a limited skirmish; it would probably involve other nations, including the United States, and could rapidly escalate to a major confrontation with severe repercussions.”

Policy Standpoints

The administration in Taipei says only its people can decide its future. Officials in Tokyo have previously avoided publicly mentioning Taiwan when addressing potential conflicts, maintaining a “deliberate vagueness” also preferred by Tokyo’s main security ally, the US.

Nevertheless, Beijing's governing party says the unification of Taiwan with the People’s Republic of China is “inevitable”, and casts any opposition to it as escalatory. As it moves towards being capable of military annexation, Beijing has also been increasing its political operations and its rhetoric towards the island.